Man vs. Nature and the New Meaning of Drought

Creation Groans John 4:13-14 Jesus answered and said to her, "Everyone who drinks of this water will thirst again; but whoever drinks of the water that I will give him shall never thirst; but the water that I will give him will become in him a well of water springing up to eternal life." LIVE SCIENCE.com - By Andrea Thompson - April 20, 2007 Water, water everywhere, and not a drop to drink. But wait—more than 60 percent of the nation now has abnormally dry or drought conditions, a climatologist says, and there is actually plenty to drink. In the United States the definition of "drought" has become watered down and muddied as policy makers fight over decades-old water rights and homeowners remain largely oblivious to the potentially severe shortages that loom. Drought has been the standard forecast in the southwestern United States for the past decade, and as global warming dries out this and other regions around the world, and booming populations cause more water shortages, the word is likely to be tossed around even more. "There is no single definition for drought," according to the National Drought Mitigation Center’s website. It is one of the planet’s most complex natural hazards, and exactly when a drought begins and ends is difficult to determine because it tends to develop gradually. “Drought’s a matter of perspective,” said Tony Haffer, a meteorologist with the National Weather Service (NWS) in Phoenix. “There’s just a whole bunch of different definitions.” Meteorology's drought The meteorological definition seems straightforward enough: a drought occurs when less rain falls in a given time period than usual. But location matters. Below average rainfall in Miami might still be greater than the average rainfall for Las Vegas. A drought can happen in the semi-arid conditions of the desert when the region sees even less rain than the normal limited amount of precipitation it usually gets. This has been the pattern in the Southwest for most years since the mid-90s. The average annual precipitation for Phoenix, Arizona, is about 8 inches, but since 1995, the city’s rainfall has been more than 20 inches below normal, according to the NWS. In the East, where rainfall is generally much more plentiful, drought comes quicker and is declared when rain hasn’t fallen for a few months. “When it rains, from [the East’s] perspective, the drought is over,” Haffer, the co-chair of Arizona’s Drought Monitoring Technical Committee, said. By contrast, South Florida is currently in the grip of a severe drought due to less-than-normal precipitation. The region would need an estimated six weeks of steady rain for water levels to return to normal, according to the region’s water management district. This quick recovery doesn’t happen in the West, where after years of precipitation deficits , one wet event or even one wet winter won’t be enough for reservoirs and ecosystems to recover. All about us In the Southwest, even after rains, major reservoirs may not return to their full capacity. An El Niño event during the winter of 2004 brought some relief to the region, “but it still left the big lakes, Lake Powell and Lake Mead, well below normal, and so from a hydrological standpoint, the drought really didn’t end at that time. It just stopped getting worse,” said Kevin Trenberth of the National Center for Atmospheric Research (NCAR). Because many urban areas in the Southwest, with the exception of Las Vegas, have multiple sources of water (from local reservoirs, the Colorado River and groundwater), residents sense that they are virtually immune to droughts. “That redundancy of supply has gotten the major urban areas through a string of really dry years,” said Gregg Garfin of the University of Arizona, co-chair of Arizona’s Drought Monitoring Technical Committee. But recent population booms in rural areas, where people often depend on a single source of water, are causing problematic shortages. “You have this natural component, and then you have this human-induced component as well where you’re increasing the demand,” said Susan Craig of the Arizona Department of Water Resources. Urban areas may be more in danger in the future if global warming exacerbates the dry conditions and reservoirs—the lifelines for Southwest residents—fall even lower. And drop they may. Allotments of water from the Colorado River, a major source of water for many Western states, were made during the 1920s, one of the region’s wettest periods this century. So now there are more claims to the water than there is water to go around. So far not everyone has cashed in on those claims, but if overall water levels continue to drop, somebody's going to come up dry. Bigger changes coming Water shortages will affect many areas of the United States and the world, leading to “water wars” between states and countries if global temperatures continue to rise throughout the next century, as predicted in reports issued by the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change.. Droughts will especially increase in subtropical areas, like the U.S. Southwest, Australia and parts of Africa and Europe, as Earth’s warming causes more evaporation and shifts weather patterns, pushing the paths of storms that bring thirst-quenching rains further north. According to a recent study, over the coming century the Southwest will essentially transition into a state of “perpetual drought” due to the effects of global warming. This prediction leads to the questions of whether the worsening arid conditions of the Southwest should be called a drought or whether the regional climate is changing. “The climate has changed and it’s become even a little more arid than it was,” said Trenberth, the NCAR researcher. Other scientists disagree. According to Garfin, records of the region’s past climate show that multi-decade droughts have occurred many times before. “I think the fact that we have multi-decade drought and that we’re in one now is not unusual, but maybe the character of [drought] is changing,” he said, referring to massive die-offs of trees and earlier snowmelts (which the parched soil can’t absorb, reducing a critical source of water supplies). Public perception With the off-and-on droughts experienced in the past decade in the Southwest, Craig said that some people may weary of the term. At a recent local presentation, one audience member asked her, “When do we consider that we’re not in a drought, because we’re always in a drought?” When others, especially in urban areas, hear repeated pronouncements of drought, they may not realize the full impact because they have not felt its pinch. For this reason, Craig said, it is important to educate the public not on exactly how drought is defined, but on what drought does. “Maybe to some folks it doesn’t means as much when we keep saying it,” Craig said. “But I think if you focus on impacts, it doesn’t really matter what you say.” Drought has no one meaning—it can be fit to specific places and situations. But no matter where it happens, what causes it or whether you’re tired of the topic altogether, in the coming century, some people will see less of one of our most precious natural resources—water. http://www.livescience.com/environment/070420_drought_defn.html FAIR USE NOTICE: This blog contains copyrighted material the use of which has not always been specifically authorized by the copyright owner. We are making such material available in our efforts to advance understanding of religious, environmental, political, human rights, economic, democracy, scientific, and social justice issues, etc. We believe this constitutes a 'fair use' of any such copyrighted material as provided for in section 107 of the US Copyright Law. In accordance with Title 17 U.S.C. Section 107, the material on this site is distributed without profit to those who have expressed a prior interest in receiving the included information for research and educational purposes. For more information go to: http://www.law.cornell.edu/uscode/17/107.shtml. If you wish to use copyrighted material from this site for purposes of your own that go beyond 'fair use', you must obtain permission from the copyright owner.

Heat Waves: Creation Burning

Creation Groans Revelation 16:8 The fourth angel poured out his bowl upon the sun, and it was given to it to scorch men with fire. India: Heat wave hits north Karnataka NEW DELHI TELEVISION LIMITED - By Maya Sharma - May 4, 2007 North Karnataka is dealing with extreme heat and the month of May is proving to be every bit as difficult as expected. In fact, it is so hot that just getting through the day is an effort. With temperatures reaching - and staying - in the forties, going to the market to buy vegetables feels like punishment. ''You don't get fresh vegetables. Even if they bring them fresh, they dry up in the heat. We are sick of the heat in Bagalkote. It feels as if the head is bleeding,'' said a local. ''We have to come seven or eight km to get vegetables. Those who don't have blood pressure will get high blood pressure and some may even get heart attacks. Water is also a problem. We get water only once in four or five days,'' said another. - - - It is a long way until the monsoons provide some relief; until then, people and animals are coping the best they can. http://www.ndtv.com/convergence/ndtv/story.aspx?id=NEWEN20070010893 Heat wave tightens grip over India AGENCE FRANCE PRESSE - April 27, 2007 A heat wave in northern India tightened its grip Friday, prompting some schools to shut early to prevent sunstroke attacks, officials said. Temperatures in the capital New Delhi rose to 40.9 degrees Celsius (106 Fahrenheit) on Friday, the weather office said in a bulletin. In Sriganganagar in the desert state of Rajasthan the mercury touched 43.9 degrees Celsius for the first time this summer, making it the hottest region in northern India. So far three people have died in the heat spell that settled over most of northern India mid-April. - - - - http://www.breitbart.com/article.php?id=070427183434.pt5riw4u&show_article=1 April sets European heat records REUTERS - By Jeremy Lovell - April 27, 2007 LONDON - This month is set to be the warmest April in Britain since records began nearly 350 years ago and all over Europe tourists are slapping on the sun cream several weeks ahead of schedule. Britain's Met Office said the average temperature in central England from April 1-25 was 11.1 degrees Celsius, 3.4 degrees above the norm and the highest since records began in 1659. Temperatures from Belgium to Italy are averaging more than three degrees above the 30-year norm. The office added there was a big chance of a repeat of the European heat wave of 2003 which killed some 35,000 people and which scientists attributed to global warming. - - - - http://today.reuters.com/news/articlenews.aspx?type=scienceNews&storyid=2007-04-27T191414Z_01_L27539616_RTRUKOC_0_US-CLIMATE-EUROPE-WEATHER.xml&src=rss&rpc=22 Hottest April in France since 1950 AGENCE FRANCE PRESSE - April 30, 2007 France this year had its hottest April since 1950, with the average temperature four degrees Celsius higher than the usual 10 degrees (50 Fahrenheit), the national weather office said Monday. In the northern half of France, averages recorded between the first and the 24 of April were between 8 and 12 degrees higher than the seasonal norm, said Meteo France. 1950 was the year reliable temperature measurements from 22 stations across France were begun. Record April temperatures across Europe have led to fears of drought. - - - - http://www.breitbart.com/article.php?id=070430170107.w2iizdwq&show_article=1 FAIR USE NOTICE: This blog contains copyrighted material the use of which has not always been specifically authorized by the copyright owner. We are making such material available in our efforts to advance understanding of religious, environmental, political, human rights, economic, democracy, scientific, and social justice issues, etc. We believe this constitutes a 'fair use' of any such copyrighted material as provided for in section 107 of the US Copyright Law. In accordance with Title 17 U.S.C. Section 107, the material on this site is distributed without profit to those who have expressed a prior interest in receiving the included information for research and educational purposes. For more information go to: http://www.law.cornell.edu/uscode/17/107.shtml. If you wish to use copyrighted material from this site for purposes of your own that go beyond 'fair use', you must obtain permission from the copyright owner.

Ocean currents to blame for warming: expert

Creation Groans Psalms 65:7 Who stills the roaring of the seas, The roaring of their waves, And the tumult of the peoples. Revelation 16:8 The fourth angel poured out his bowl upon the sun, and it was given to it to scorch men with fire. THE SYDNEY DAILY TELEGRAPH [Sydney, New South Wales, AU) - By Dab Elliott in Denver - April 30, 2007 THE United States' leading hurricane forecaster says global ocean currents, not human-produced carbon dioxide, are responsible for global warming. William Gray, a Colorado State University researcher, also said the Earth may begin to cool on its own in five to 10 years. Speaking to a group of Republican MPs, Dr Gray had harsh words for researchers and politicians who said man-made greenhouse gases were responsible for global warming. "They are blaming it all on humans, which is crazy," he said. "We're not the cause of it." Dr Gray said in the past 40 years the number of serious hurricanes making landfall on the US Atlantic coast had declined even though carbon dioxide levels had risen. He said increasing levels of carbon dioxide would not produce more, or stronger, hurricanes. Dr Gray, 77, has long criticised the theory that heat-trapping gases generated by human activity are causing the world to warm. Earlier this month, he dubbed former US vice-president and 2000 Democratic presidential candidate Al Gore "a gross alarmist" for making the Oscar-winning documentary, An Inconvenient Truth, which helped focus media attention on global warming. Yesterday, Dr Gray said that politics and research into global warming had created "almost an industry" that had frightened the public and overwhelmed dissenting voices. He said research arguing that humans were causing global warming was "mush" based on unreliable computer models that could not possibly take into account the hundreds of factors that influenced the weather. He said little-understood ocean currents were behind a decades-long warming cycle, and disputed assertions that greenhouse gases could raise global temperatures as much as some scientists predicted. - - - - http://www.news.com.au/dailytelegraph/story/0,22049,21636036-5012769,00.html FAIR USE NOTICE: This blog contains copyrighted material the use of which has not always been specifically authorized by the copyright owner. We are making such material available in our efforts to advance understanding of religious, environmental, political, human rights, economic, democracy, scientific, and social justice issues, etc. We believe this constitutes a 'fair use' of any such copyrighted material as provided for in section 107 of the US Copyright Law. In accordance with Title 17 U.S.C. Section 107, the material on this site is distributed without profit to those who have expressed a prior interest in receiving the included information for research and educational purposes. For more information go to: http://www.law.cornell.edu/uscode/17/107.shtml. If you wish to use copyrighted material from this site for purposes of your own that go beyond 'fair use', you must obtain permission from the copyright owner.

A letter to the Global Church from The Protestant Church of Smyrna

Persecution Joel 2:31 "The sun will be turned into darkness And the moon into blood Before the great and awesome day of the LORD comes. Matthew 24:9 "Then they will deliver you to tribulation, and will kill you, and you will be hated by all nations because of My name. Dear friends, This past week has been filled with much sorrow. Many of you have heard by now of our devastating loss here in an event that took place in Malatya, a Turkish province 300 miles northeast of Antioch, the city where believers were first called Christians (Acts 11:26). On Wednesday morning, April 18, 2007, 46 year old German missionary and father of three Tilman Geske prepared to go to his office, kissing his wife goodbye taking a moment to hug his son and give him the priceless memory, “Goodbye, son. I love you." Tilman rented an office space from Zirve Publishing where he was preparing notes for the new Turkish Study Bible. Zirve was also the location of the Malatya Evangelist Church office. A ministry of the church, Zirve prints and distributes Christian literature to Malatya and nearby cities in Eastern Turkey. In another area of town, 35 year old Pastor Necati Aydin, father of two, said goodbye to his wife, leaving for the office as well. They had a morning Bible Study and prayer meeting that some other believers in town would also be attending. Ugur Yuksel likewise made his way to the Bible study. None of these three men knew that what awaited them at the Bible study was the ultimate testing and application of their faith, which would conclude with their entrance into glory to receive their crown of righteousness from Christ and honour from all the saints awaiting them in the Lord's presence. On the other side of town, ten young men all under 20 years old put into place final arrangements for their ultimate act of faith, living out their love for Allah and hatred of infidels who they felt undermined Islam. On Resurrection Sunday, five of these men had been to a by-invitation-only evangelistic service that Pastor Necati and his men had arranged at a hotel conference room in the city.The men were known to the believers as "seekers." No one knows what happened in the hearts of those men as they listened to the gospel. Were they touched by the Holy Spirit? Were they convicted of sin? Did they hear the gospel in their heart of hearts? Today we only have the beginning of their story. These young men, one of whom is the son of a mayor in the Province of Malatya, are part of a tarikat, or a group of "faithful believers" in Islam. Tarikat membership is highly respected here; it's like a fraternity membership. In fact, it is said that no one can get into public office without membership in a tarikat. These young men all lived in the same dorm, all preparing for university entrance exams. The young men got guns, bread knives, ropes and towels ready for their final act of service to Allah. They knew there would be a lot of blood. They arrived in time for the Bible Study, around 10 o'clock. They arrived, and apparently the Bible Study began. Reportedly, after Necati read a chapter from the Bible the assault began. The boys tied Ugur, Necati, and Tilman's hands and feet to chairs and as they videoed their work on their cellphones, they tortured our brothers for almost three hours* [Details of the torture- Tilman was stabbed 156 times, Necati 99 times and Ugur's stabs were too numerous to count. They were disemboweled, and their intestines sliced up in front of their eyes. They were emasculated and watched as those body parts were destroyed.Fingers were chopped off, their noses and mouths and anuses were sliced open. Possibly the worst part was watching as their brothers were likewise tortured. Finally, their throats were sliced from ear to ear, heads practically decapitated.] Neighbors in workplaces near the printhouse said later they had heard yelling, but assumed the owners were having a domestic argument so they did not respond. Meanwhile, another believer Gokhan and his wife had a leisurely morning. He slept in till 10, ate a long breakfast and finally around 12:30 he and his wife arrived at the office. The door was locked from the inside, and his key would not work. He phoned and though it had connection on his end he did not hear the phone ringing inside. He called cell phones of his brothers and finally Ugur answered his phone. "We are not at the office. Go to the hotel meeting. We are there. We will come there," he said cryptically. As Ugur spoke Gokhan heard in the telephone's background weeping and a strange snarling sound. He phoned the police, and the nearest officer arrived in about five minutes. He pounded on the door, "Police, open up!" Initially the officer thought it was a domestic disturbance. At that point they heard another snarl and a gurgling moan. The police understood that sound as human suffering, prepared the clip in his gun and tried over and over again to burst through the door. One of the frightened assailants unlocked the door for the policeman, who entered to find a grisly scene. Tilman and Necati had been slaughtered, practically decapitated with their necks slit from ear to ear. Ugur's throat was likewise slit and he was barely alive. Three assailants in front of the policeman dropped their weapons. Meanwhile Gokhan heard a sound of yelling in the street. Someone had fallen from their third story office. Running down, he found a man on the ground, whom he later recognized, named Emre Gunaydin. He had massive head trauma and, strangely, was snarling. He had tried to climb down the drainpipe to escape, and losing his balance had plummeted to the ground. It seems that he was the main leader of the attackers. Another assailant was found hiding on a lower balcony. To untangle the web we need to back up six years. In April 2001, the National Security Council of Turkey (Milli Guvenlik Kurulu) began to consider evangelical Christians as a threat to national security, on equal footing as Al Quaida and PKK terrorism. Statements made in the press by political leaders, columnists and commentators have fueled a hatred against missionaries who they claim bribe young people to change their religion. After that decision in 2001, attacks and threats on churches, pastors and Christians began. Bombings, physical attacks, verbal and written abuse are only some of the ways Christians are being targetted. Most significant is the use of media propaganda. From December 2005, after having a long meeting regarding the Christian threat, the wife of Former Prime Minister Ecevit, historian Ilber Ortayli, Professor Hasan Unsal, Politician Ahmet Tan and writer/propogandist Aytunc Altindal, each in their own profession began a campaign to bring the public's attention to the looming threat of Christians who sought to "buy their children's souls". Hidden cameras in churches have taken church service footage and used it sensationally to promote fear and antagonism toward Christianity. In an official televised response from Ankara, the Interior Minister of Turkey smirked as he spoke of the attacks on our brothers. Amid publicoutrage and protests against the event and in favor of freedom of religion and freedom of thought, media and official comments ring with the same message, "We hope you have learned your lesson. We do not want Christians here." It appears that this was an organized attack initiated by an unknown adult tarikat leader. As in the Hrant Dink murder in January 2007, and a Catholic priest Andrea Santoro in February 2006, minors are being used to commit religious murders because public sympathy for youth is strong and they face lower penalties than an adult convicted of the same crime. Even the parents of these children are in favour of the acts. The mother of the 16 year old boy who killed the Catholic priest Andrea Santoro looked at the cameras as her son was going to prison and said, "he will serve time for Allah." The young men involved in the killing are currently in custody. Today news reported that they would be tried as terrorists, so their age would not affect the strict penalty. Assailant Emre Gunaydin is still in intensive care. The investigation centers around him and his contacts and they say will fall apart if he does not recover. The Church in Turkey responded in a way that honoured God as hundreds of believers and dozens of pastors flew in as fast as they could to stand by the small church of Malatya and encourage the believers, take care of legal issues, and represent Christians to the media. When Susanne Tilman expressed her wish to bury her husband in Malatya, the Governor tried to stop it, and when he realized he could not stop it, a rumor was spread that "it is a sin to dig a grave for a Christian." In the end, in an undertaking that should be remembered in Christian history forever, the men from the church in Adana (near Tarsus), grabbed shovels And dug a grave for their slain brother in an un-tended hundred year old Armenian graveyard. Ugur was buried by his family in an Alevi Muslim ceremony in his hometown of Elazig, his believing fiance watching from the shadows as his family and friends refused to accept in death the faith Ugur had so long professed and died for. Necati's funeral took place in his hometown of Izmir, the city where he came to faith. The darkness does not understand the light. Though the churches expressed their forgiveness for the event, Christians were not to be trusted. Before they would load the coffin onto the plane from Malatya, it went through two separate xray exams to make sure it was not loaded with explosives. This is not a usual procedure for Muslim coffins. Necati's funeral was a beautiful event. Like a glimpse of heaven, thousands of Turkish Christians and missionaries came to show their love for Christ, and their honor for this man chosen to die for Christ. Necati's wife Shemsa told the world, "His death was full of meaning, because he died for Christ and he lived for Christ. Necati was a gift from God. I feel honored that he was in my life, I feel crowned with honor. I want to be worthy of that honor." Boldly the believers took their stand at Necati's funeral, facing the risks of being seen publicly and likewise becoming targets. As expected, the anti-terror police attended and videotaped everyone attending the funeral for their future use. The service took place outside at Buca Baptist church, and he was buried in a small Christian graveyard in the outskirts Of Izmir. Two assistant Governors of Izmir were there solemnly watching the event from the front row. Dozens of news agencies were there documenting the events with live news and photographs. Who knows the impact the funeral had on those watching? This is the beginning of their story as well. Pray for them. In an act that hit front pages in the largest newspapers in Turkey, Susanne Tilman in a television interview expressed her forgiveness. She did not want revenge, she told reporters. "Oh God, forgive them for they know not what they do," she said, wholeheartedly agreeing with the words of Christ on Calvary (Luke 23:34). In a country where blood-for-blood revenge is as normal as breathing, many many reports have come to the attention of the church of how this comment of Susanne Tilman has changed lives. One columnist wrote of her comment, "She said in one sentence what 1000 missionaries in 1000 years could never do." The missionaries in Malatya will most likely move out, as their families and children have become publicly identified as targets to the hostile city. The remaining 10 believers are in hiding. What will happen to this church, this light in the darkness? Most likely it will go underground. Pray for wisdom, that Turkish brothers from other cities will go to lead the leaderless church. Should we not be concerned for that great city of Malatya, a city that does not know what it is doing? (Jonah 4:11) When our Pastor Fikret Bocek went with a brother to give a statement to the Security Directorate on Monday they were ushered into the Anti-Terror Department. On the wall was a huge chart covering the whole wall listing all the terrorist cells in Izmir, categorized. In one prominent column were listed all the evangelical churches in Izmir. The darkness does not understand the light. "These that have turned the world upside down are come hither also."(Acts 17:6) Please pray for the Church in Turkey."Don't pray against persecution,pray for perseverence," urges Pastor Fikret Bocek. The Church is better having lost our brothers; the fruit in our lives, the renewed faith, the burning desire to spread the gospel to quench more darkness in Malatya .all these are not to be regretted. Pray that we stand strong against external opposition and especially pray that we stand strong against internal struggles with sin, our true debilitating weakness. This we know. Christ Jesus was there when our brothers were giving their lives for Him. He was there, like He was when Stephen was being stoned in the sight of Saul of Tarsus. Someday the video of the deaths of our brothers may reveal more to us about the strength that we know Christ gave them to endure their last cross, about the peace the Spirit of God endowed them with to suffer for their beloved Saviour. But we know He did not leave their side. We know their minds were full of Scripture strengthening them to endure, as darkness tried to subdue the unsubduable Light of the Gospel. We know, in whatever way they were able, with a look or a word, they encouraged one another to stand strong. We know they knew they would soon be with Christ. We don't know the details. We don't know the kind of justice that will or will not be served on this earth. But we pray-- and urge you to pray-- that someday at least one of those five boys will come to faith because of the testimony in death of Tilman Geske, who gave his life as a missionary to his beloved Turks, and the testimonies in death of Necati Aydin and Ugur Yuksel, the first martyrs for Christ out of the Turkish Church. Reported by Darlene N. Bocek (24 April 2007) Please please please pass this on to as many praying Christians as you can, in as many countries as you can. Please always keep the heading as: "From the Protestant Church of Smyrna" with this contact information: http://www.izmirprotestan.org